While the doomers hole themselves up in their basement apartments with their canned beans, ammo and MREs awaiting the zombie hordes, I will be watching the show on my big screen TV with popcorn and pizza delivered from dominoes. As I stated elsewhere, the doomers are out to lunch when they suggest that the logistics infrastructure will collapse post peak oil.
Given that fully loaded semi trucks combined with a hub and spoke delivery system and long distance container based shipping is the most efficient use of oil we currently have, when oil prices start to rise because of peak oil, it's obvious that the dollars will go to these rather than "local" production of food. The remaining leg of the logistics infrastructure is the last mile which is currently inefficient since it's based on low mileage low efficiency gas or diesel vehicles to take the shopper to the store. In the case where the shopper sits on his/her ass watching TV and ordering by phone or online, the inefficiency of the last mile is removed. That's already true with pizza delivery to multiple stops on a single run even with conventional vehicles. But now we have all electric delivery vehicles courtesty of Ford. The all new 2010 Ford Transit Connect available at a dealership near you.
Also available: full sized electric buses from Optare and 12-15 seater minibuses from Smith Electric and electric taxis from Mercedes. Seems the shopping malls, commuting to work and having frivolous crap bought on the internet delivered to your doorstep are not dead either.
Peak Oil Dieoff? Hit the snooze button.
5 comments:
So how many months you think you'll make it after the dollar collapses?
Hello DB,
I hope you don't mind if I correct a few of your observations.
1. "Peak Oil" will not happen anytime soon, as there are several trillion barrels still in the ground.
2. The Transit Connect vehicles at your local dealership are not electric. The electric version will go into production in Q4:
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/mar/03/business/la-fi-ford-electric4-2010mar04
3. Pizza delivery drivers usually don't carry more than 2 orders at a time. Of course carrying more would make their runs more fuel efficient, but the main concern for the operation is that the pizza arrives fresh. The operation doesn't pay for fuel, the drivers do.
Doomers certainly are a crazy bunch, I'll agree with you on that one.
SG
Hey mate!
Nice articel, I find comfort in the fact that there are still those who act against the doomer cult
though sadly these are depressing times, there has been no word from either Brewskie or JD for months and months, I wonder if they are even there still, remaining loyal to their belifes or if they have joined the doomer boat, which would be great lose
what do you think about their absence, have you been in touch with them?
regards
Sp00ky
Ps: what is this talk I have heard in the news that we are nearing the peak fast? have we entered yet another doom spike in the oil news?
Hey mate!
Nice artivel, I'm glad that there are still people out there who are figthing the doomer cult
However, I am distressed by the long absence of Brewskie and JD, and I fear that they will never return (or may have joined the doomer parade)
Do you know anything about their current status?
Many regards
Sp00ky
Ps: I have noticed rising oil prices and yet another spike in doomer activity in the oil industry, what has happened?
Anonymous:
"So how many months you think you'll make it after the dollar collapses?"
Compared to what?
All of our major competitors are also printing tons of money.
The Europeans have a bigger economy than us and no oil to speak off, so the dollar isn't going to collapse too much against the Euro.
The Japanese have been in and out of recession for fifteen years. I'm not holding my breath on that one.
The Chinese? They have one and a half billion people, not enough land to feed everyone and are trying to grow their economy at 10+ percent per year. Not holding my breath on a total collapse against the yuan either, though a revaluation might be in order.
The only remaining currencies against which the dollar might fall are the Russian ruble and the Brasilian real.
But go on, if you are really afraid, savinar has a good deal going on bulk MREs...
DB
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