Tuesday, 9 February 2010

The Financial System will collapse because of Peak Oil Part II

The collapse of the financial system post peak oil part II
In the first part I debunked the myth that the global financial system will collapse once peak oil becomes evident because allegedly "growth" is based on oil and when oil stops growing we will no longer have growth. I did this by demonstrating that we do not in fact have a growth system but instead have a cyclical system and that our system is based on risk rather than the prospect of continual growth.
I will continue this by asking the question: Can the payment of interest be continued past peak oil?

This question is a very loaded question replete with multiple assumptions (as are many of the assertions on which dieoff are based).
The answer to the question "Can the payment of interest be continue past peak oil?" is met with another question: "Can surplus be generated post peak oil in order to pay interest?"
This is turn is answered by the question: "Do we or can we do work other than that provided by oil powered machinery?" and "Will this work provide any surplus?"

If we look closely the ultimate question is this: After peak oil, will ALL work be agricultural?
If the answer is yes then clearly there will be no surplus and thus no interest.

Back in the real world however, we see that even in heavily agricultural countries cities existed prior to the use of oil. Cities clearly are not deriving their income from agriculture and THUS they must have been living off of some kind of surplus. This is simple specialization of labor. In addition, in every single human society there is a power law describing the wealth distribution of the population. The human population since the invention of agriculture has never been homogenously poor. There have always been rich people, wealthy people and those who service them living in the cities. This is not likely to disappear after peak oil. And since the definition of a wealthy person is someone who has more than they need to live, quite clearly such a person will be capable of paying interest since they will be able to accumulate savings. This is also the case for EVERY SINGLE PERSON who earns more than their daily bread.

It's also interesting to note that the world's largest investors (such as Warren Buffer, HSBC bank etc) are not merely investing in gold, oil and ammo but instead are investing in what they reckon will be the markets of the future (i.e. electrified transportation systems, enhanced oil extraction, shale gas, renewables and nuclear (among other things)), quite the opposite of what you would expect if they were aware (as doomers like to suggest) that the world was about to disappear up it's own butt due to the collapse of the financial system brought on by peak oil.
But then again, rich people and their advisors are clearly stupid and unqualified right? Obviously the doomers know better. Sheeesh...

Those who say peak oil will lead to the collapse of the financial system are simply ignorant of real world economics. But that's the point isn't it? The dieoff crowd says "economists are wrong" and thus the world is doomed. My five bucks says otherwise.

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