Tuesday, 22 February 2011

Libyan Oil Exports Destination

This is a short post for now with just some regurgitation of facts and very little analysis.

What is the current gap between supply and demand in the world oil market?

About 4 million barrels per day.

What is the size of libyan oil exports?

About a million and a half barrels per day.

Where do Libyan Oil Exports go?
In 2009, Brazil took 3%, Italy took 32%, Germany took 14%, China took 10%, France took 10%, Spain took 9%, the US took 5%, Other European countries took 14% and Other Asian Countries took 14%.

What is the oil consumption of Europe?
About 14 million barrels per day. So the loss of Libyan oil is about 9-10% of the EU oil supply.

On a positive note we still have about 4 million barrels per day of excess capacity so we're not (yet) short and unlikely to be facing a "last light" scenario any time soon.

This, however, does underline the need to ramp up non-oil based alternatives.

Hopefully any price spike ($4 a gallon anyone?) will convince the F150 and Dodge Ram drivers that they may need to start thinking about e.g. a GM Volt for their daily commute

Any case, we're about to find out if the global economy really does collapse based on "high" oil prices. I suspect it won't because my theory is that high prices (notwithstanding oil shocks) are generally driven by a strong economy instead of the other way round.


Anonymous said...

Interesting :)
but what are you aiming at? :P

DB said...

This is more of an informational post. I was searching the internet for some hard data on where Libyan exports went to and from this, I wanted an idea of who would be affected and in particular would it affect us here in North America. Eastern Canada imports most of it's oil from Algeria and I wondered if any came from Libya. So my guess is North America will be fairly insulated in terms of supply. It will be interesting to watch gas prices in Europe over the next couple of weeks, however.

Anonymous said...

Though old saudi is ready to step in if things get out of hand

Anonymous said...

At 100 dollar a barrel of oil, we are borrowing well over a billion dollars a day to import oil. Approaching two billion. And, suppose we get a 30-40 percent increase to where it was two years ago, 147 or so, 150, then we'll be borrowing close to three billion dollars a day to import oil.