What is the current gap between supply and demand in the world oil market?
About 4 million barrels per day.
What is the size of libyan oil exports?
About a million and a half barrels per day.
Where do Libyan Oil Exports go?
In 2009, Brazil took 3%, Italy took 32%, Germany took 14%, China took 10%, France took 10%, Spain took 9%, the US took 5%, Other European countries took 14% and Other Asian Countries took 14%.
What is the oil consumption of Europe?
About 14 million barrels per day. So the loss of Libyan oil is about 9-10% of the EU oil supply.
On a positive note we still have about 4 million barrels per day of excess capacity so we're not (yet) short and unlikely to be facing a "last light" scenario any time soon.
This, however, does underline the need to ramp up non-oil based alternatives.
Hopefully any price spike ($4 a gallon anyone?) will convince the F150 and Dodge Ram drivers that they may need to start thinking about e.g. a GM Volt for their daily commute
Any case, we're about to find out if the global economy really does collapse based on "high" oil prices. I suspect it won't because my theory is that high prices (notwithstanding oil shocks) are generally driven by a strong economy instead of the other way round.