On this site I've already taken a look at the IEA report and concluded reaonably optimistic projections based on chopping it down a little.
One of our more pessimistic friends (as reported on the Oil Drum) ex- from the Saudi Company Aramco Sadad Ibrahim Al-Husseini, former executive vice president for exploration and production says that IEA is too optimistic because supplies are depleting at "twice" the rate of new reserves being added. (Note that he's talking about supplies of *conventional* crude and isn't talking about substitutes, demand destruction or efficiency *at all*).
He goes on to say that conventional resources have to be replaced by deep water resources and arctic resources as well as smaller fields which deplete at a higher rate than large fields. (Note that nowhere is discussed the possibility I highlighted earlier that there might be greater total volume in a potentially much larger number of smaller fields than there are in the large fields since in nature volume of e.g. lakes follows a power law and it's unlikely that oil fields are any different)
Husseini's "more realistic" forecast of global crude oil supplies yields what he described as a production plateau that levels off at around 87 million bpd from 2013 through 2019 and declines thereafter to nearly 83 million bpd by 2030.
“Supply shortfalls during this time frame must be met by unconventional fuels and oil substitutes…Gulf oil production would not exceed 25-26 million bpd over the next two decades owing to a variety of technical and economic reasons.”
Interesting. So he says that conventional fields all by themselves will start to decline from 87 mbpd in 2019 to 83 mbpd in 2030. I make that to be a gap of 4 mbpd over a period of 11 years. In other words less than a half million barrels per day net decline rate for *conventional* supplies.
Can we make up a half million barrel per day decline rate on a yearly basis from unconventional sources such as tar-sands, gas-to-liquids, fuel substituion, efficiency and other demand-destruction measures such as "taking the bus"?
We're so friggen dooooooomed!!!