tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6248960106728710441.post2686935511729457276..comments2023-10-09T06:17:04.874-07:00Comments on Dieoff Debunked: Algal Oil Breaktrhoughs?DBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07695268078574303413noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6248960106728710441.post-70523033261223736202010-09-20T11:27:51.878-07:002010-09-20T11:27:51.878-07:00Yes you're right. I am indeed assuming that de...Yes you're right. I am indeed assuming that demand will keep on growing. Where I break from the doomers is that I believe that the demand will be shifted away from oil in most sectors EVENTUALLY but in the meantime we will still have a huge (and growing in some area) conventional fleet.<br /><br />Why?<br /><br />Because the BRIC countries want to grow. They look at the western lifestyle and ask the question: "We have money, why can't we have cars too?"<br /><br />Well why can't they?<br /><br />What is interesting is the interplay between the developed market and the developing markets.<br /><br />Conventional engined vehicles are a mature technology with heavy competition and economies of scale in all sectors. Competition and economies of scale tend to lead to lowered prices.<br /><br />Given that's the case, those in the developing economies will be able to afford conventional vehicles *first* before they can afford alt-fuel vehicles.<br /><br />That scenario means that the rich world is going to have to take the burden of switching to higher priced alt-fuel vehicles first. That will tend to lessen global demand for oil but due to the chaotic interplay between decrease in demand in the rich countries combined with slow but rising demand in developing countries we're likely to see a bumpy oil price with many peaks and troughs over the next couple of decades.<br /><br />Eventually alt-fuel vehicles will be cheap enough that everybody can afford them and at that point, yes demand would plummet from the ground based transportation sector but at the same time, since there is no viable alternative for jet fuel, it's likely that the price of jet fuel could still be high.<br /><br />Bear in mind however that I'm discounting any potential disruptive technologies.<br /><br />For example: a super high energy density fuel cell could work for a turbo-prop engined aircraft although not a jet-engine.<br />And turbo-props would work for short-haul flights.DBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07695268078574303413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6248960106728710441.post-74323248155733847582010-09-18T10:18:38.500-07:002010-09-18T10:18:38.500-07:00Once more a very interesting articel (and thank yo...Once more a very interesting articel (and thank you for the answers to my last post)<br /><br />I wonder though, when it comes to your algal oil production senario, arnt you assuming that the world demand would keep growing? meaning that oil consumation would remain high and growing despite shifts to alternative energy sources?<br /><br />I would think that keeping up with demand would be easier in a world where clean energy is the powerhorse would be relitivly easy, thus lowering the cost for algal yet fuel<br /><br />that would be the only "flaw" (lack of better term) I can find in an otherwise excellent articel <br /><br />regards<br />Hybermann<br /><br />Ps: I will ask my solar energy related question here aswell (making it easier for you to keep track on my comments :)) <br /><br />you said in the solar energy articel that once the price for solar power and traditional fossil fuel power reaches the same level, the shift to eletric power would be breathtaking<br /><br />You refer here to developments in Italy and South Africa, my question is if we would be able to reach a similar rquality in the northern/western hemisphere (where sunlight is less common than in the south)<br /><br />In a way sunrich areas have an advantage in this field, and I wonder if solar power will become as efficent in the north<br /><br />I pardon any ignorence my question may display, but Solar power is not somthing I know that much about :)<br /><br />PPs: Please pardon my deplorable english spelling, it is not my first language hehHybermannnoreply@blogger.com